“Wait… haven’t we talked about this before?” I might hear you ask. And yes – you’re not crazy. This is a topic that I’ve covered previously. That said, the world of media and entertainment moves quickly. So quickly, in fact, that the theatrical to home release timeline discussed previously has already shifted. What sort of a shift? How is it different now? Is that a good thing or a bad thing?
These are all issues I hope to address. Let’s discuss…
A Refresher
So, in order to best break down the changes that have occurred to the timeline in the last few years, we should first (briefly) discuss where things were when we last left off. For that, let’s turn back to the handy chart I created the last time (in Early 2020):
- Day Zero: The Film is released in theaters.
- Day Thirty (average): The Film Leaves theaters.
- Day One Hundred and Twenty: The Film may be Available to Rent On-Demand and Purchase Digitally.
- Day One Hundred and Thirty: The Film may be available to Purchase physically.
- Day One Hundred and Eighty: The Film may begin to appear on Premium Cable channels.
- Day Two Hundred and Seventy: The Film may begin appearing on Streaming Services.
- Day Seven Hundred and Twenty (Two Years): The Film may begin appearing on Basic Cable.
As you can see, this timeline effectively shows a model where a film spends around a month in theaters, followed by a three (or so) month gap wherein it is “unavailable.” This is then quickly followed by the ability to rent or purchase it and then, subsequently (a few months later), its appearance on premium cable channels or streaming services. The final thing to occur, around two years out from release, is the ability to potentially see said film on standard cable.
This model, while severely truncated from the system of yesteryear (discuss in more depth in my previous article on the subject), allows for some – albeit small – separation between the various method of release. While some might rightly argue that this hurts the potential revenue and prestige that come from a theatrical release, it at least allows each method room to breathe… to a degree.
Enter 2020
So, I’m probably not shocking anyone here when I say that 2020 was a big year for the media industry – in that it was a record LOW year. Like pretty much everyone else on the planet, Hollywood (and the entire sector, from independents to documentaries) found themselves locked in the grips of the Coronavirus pandemic. Not only did this mean that production on basically all new material was halted for months on end, but it also meant that people weren’t going to the cinema anymore. Now, while this ended up killing a great number of individual theaters (having no revenue will do that to you), it also caused studios and distributors to rethink their plans for already-shot material.
In effect, they were left with a handful of options: release the film to theaters anyway (and accept basically zero return on investment), hold the film for some unknown time after the virus had abated, release the film to rent on-demand, or send it straight to a streaming service. None of these were particularly great choices, as each had a distinct set of downfalls (and each was far less lucrative that their initial plans and projections). Still, the show must go on!… Right?
Right.
As such, right as the streaming wars took off in earnest, the theatrical to home release timeline was shaken up once again. Studios like Paramount chose to hold off on releasing big-budget films like the already shot (and partially-promoted) Top Gun: Maverick, while others like Disney chose to split their films between a straight release to Disney+ (Looking at you, Black Widow) or to on-demand viewing structure that required you to pay a nearly $30 fee to “rent” the film from within Disney+ – a streaming service that you were already paying for (the remake of Mulan being a prime example of this model).
Then there were those that went in whole-hog, like Warner Brothers. In the face of such an unprecedented challenge, they decided to go all-in on promoting their new (at the time) streaming service, HBOMAX. As a result, their entire film slate of 2021 was set to premiere day-and-date both in cinemas AND on the fledgling service (with the hope of luring in new subscribers). Everything from Godzilla vs King Kong to Matrix 4 was beamed directly into people’s homes. Because of this, the box office numbers for those films in the still-recovering marketplace were no doubt stunted and it was likewise hard to tell if any given film appearing on the service was the cause for more signups or not. (It was perhaps no surprise then that Warner Brothers quickly announced that this strategy was being dropped come 2022).
Still, all this marketplace shake-up had another effect – it took consumers who were already becoming accustomed to watching high-quality entertainment in their homes (think of not just the films being watched there, but also the big-budget streaming shows such as Stranger Things and WandaVision) and further confirmed that doing so was “just as good” as heading to the theater. Not only that, it became the “expected” norm, to a degree.
The New Normal
As a result of all this rapid-fire shattering of norms, many studios changed their approach to how they handled the release of their media going forward. What was already a truncated timeline for how movies found their way out of the theaters and into our homes was given a shot of adrenaline and made even shorter. As mentioned last time, while all studios do things a little differently and, thus, no one timeline gives a FULL picture as to the release strategies for all originations, a general shift was seen across the marketplace. As such, I present you with the NEW theatrical to home release timeline (as of 2022):
- Day Zero: The Film is released in theaters (and maybe day-and-date on a synergistic streaming service)
- Day Thirty (average): The Film Leaves theaters.
- Day Forty-Five: The Film shows up on synergistic streaming services (such as Disney+ for a Disney film)
- Day Sixty: The Film may be Available to Rent On-Demand and Purchase Digitally.
- Day Ninety: The Film may be available to Purchase physically.
- Day One Hundred and Twenty: The Film may begin appearing on Streaming Services.
- Day One Hundred and Eighty: The Film may begin to appear on Premium Cable channels.
- Day Seven Hundred and Twenty (Two Years): The Film may begin appearing on Basic Cable.
As you can see, this new timeline looks quite different from the old one. What modicum of exclusivity that theaters once owned on new releases has been whittled down to just over a month and a half for many of the largest studios (Disney prime among them). Films no sooner leave – and are oftentimes still IN – cinemas and people have the option of watching them in the comfort of their own homes, often with no additional fee (provided they are subscribed to the proper streaming services). Heck, some films like Halloween Ends showed up on a streaming service the SAME DAY as their theatrical release.
Not only that, a mere two additional weeks of waiting usually results in the ability to rent said feature on-demand (for a cumulatively smaller fee than going to the movies if two or more people watch). If this is still too much of an “inconvenience” for you, give it another two months and you can usually catch the film on a non-synergistic streaming service (if you haven’t already bought the Blu-ray).
Effectively, studios have managed to take what was an already short timeline that offered little leeway for theatrical exclusivity (and, thus, profits for the theaters themselves) and shorten it into obscurity. They’ve made the case for forgoing the cinema and just waiting until the inevitably quick home release so clear-cut for the average viewer that it’s no wonder that the box office has yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels (if it ever does).
Is the Theatrical Experience Dead?
I’ll save you a lot of time and wondering by just answering – no.
At least, not yet.
You see, while all the above might lead you to believe that physically leaving your home to go see a movie projected on the big screen might be going the way of the Dodo, there are still reasons for hope and certain studios are pushing back (to momentous financial rewards).
For one, Warner Brothers (yes, the same studio that sent a year of movies straight to HBOMAX) has announced a growing focus on producing more films for theatrical distribution (and for prioritizing these releases over just throwing them onto streaming). No doubt this move was informed by their previous experience in 2020 and the lost revenue that came from giving people a free and easy way to watch day-and-date with theatrical exhibition. Of course, they might also have been swayed by the success that one other studio saw by bucking the trend of a quick turnaround to streaming…
I’m of course talking about Paramount’s unbridled success with Top Gun: Maverick. Not only did their bid of waiting until after the biggest impacts of Covid had receded before releasing their film into theaters pay off, but they also chose to hold back on bringing the film to streaming – instead keeping it playing exclusively in theaters for months. The result of all this, along with the superb quality of the film, was that Top Gun went on to become the 11th highest-grossing film of ALL TIME! By keeping the spectacle and magic that was seeing such a special movie on the big screen, and requiring that people go out and experience it together, they found themselves sitting on box office GOLD. If anything, the fact that attendance remained so high was proof positive that audiences were indeed MORE than willing to go out to see a good film (especially when there weren’t other viewing options muddying the waters).
In fact, despite the film releasing on May 27th, 2022, it never received a physical media release until October 31st – almost 150 days (compared to 90 from comparable studios). As for streaming? It was eventually released onto Paramount+ on December 22nd – a full seven months (210 days!) after it originally premiered. And that’s on a synergistic service.
Conclusion
So, beyond getting extremely rich(er), what did the Paramount (and the industry) take from all this? That perhaps they should consider focusing more heavily on a strategy of supporting theatrical releases rather than undercutting them with competing sources.
Now, this doesn’t mean that everyone will follow suit – nor does it mean that every film that does so will be an unmitigated success in the form of Top Gun (there are so many contributing factors, not the least of which is quality). What it does show, however, is that the public’s appetite for enjoying films in their traditional environment is still alive and well – as long as you give them a reason to show up.
This doesn’t mean that streaming is the enemy or that different films can’t follow divergent paths to their audiences – they most certainly can and should. But it does hopefully mean that the current trend of movies blowing through their time and the box office to then just dump onto a subscription service mere weeks later will begin to dissipate.
And don’t get me wrong – I love watching a new movie at home (for “free”) just as much as the next person. I’m not trying to cut my own throat for the sake of some purist sense of “cinema.” No, I’m merely hoping that the industry works to preserve the important and cultural touchstone that is the magic of the theatrical experience (and that they are now seeing that there is also financial justification for doing so – the real reason any large corporation does anything).
As with most things, we’ll just have to wait and see what the future holds for the current iteration of the theatrical to home release timeline. Does it eventually double down on the speed of release or revert back to a slower and more deliberate model? Only time – and box office reports – will tell. The one thing I am sure of?
Things always change.
(So, I supposed I’ll likely be talking about this again one day.)
Until then – go watch a movie.
Chris
This really answered my problem, thank you!